Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tightly contested race, remaining within the polling margin of error despite significant events. External factors are becoming more influential.
Two assassination attempts, a debate, and controversies involving Trump’s campaign have not significantly shifted voter sentiment, leaving both candidates searching for an edge as Election Day approaches.
Trump has sought to change how Nebraska allocates its electoral votes and proposed new voting rules in Georgia to gain advantages in crucial battlegrounds. Meanwhile, Harris is focusing on abortion-related referenda to boost voter turnout and hopes controversies surrounding North Carolina’s GOP nominee will dampen Republican enthusiasm in that state.
The strategies reflect the need to secure marginal gains in a race characterized by a deeply divided electorate. “Every bit helps,” noted Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson, emphasizing that tight races often hinge on small margins.
Recent national and swing state polls indicate that neither candidate has moved significantly ahead, with Harris’s lead not exceeding 3.7 points since July. Despite Trump’s assassination attempts typically generating sympathy for a candidate, the current dynamics have left both contenders looking for alternative strategies.
In Georgia, Trump advocates for hand-counting ballots, arguing it will reduce fraud, while experts warn it could lead to errors. His attempts to push Nebraska toward a winner-takes-all electoral vote system ultimately fell flat due to lack of support among state Republicans.
Harris is optimistic that abortion initiatives will mobilize voters in states like Arizona, Florida, and Nevada, while the scandal involving North Carolina’s Lt. Gov. could turn some voters against the GOP in that competitive state.
However, the impact of these outside factors may only be marginal. “You’re maybe moving a couple thousand votes,” said a former Trump administration official, highlighting the fine margins that could decide the race.
Both candidates are well-known, which complicates efforts to shift public perception. A source close to Harris’s campaign expressed surprise at the lack of movement, noting that strong debate performances usually lead to more significant changes.
GOP strategist Dave Carney pointed out that despite both candidates enjoying favorable moments recently, the overall landscape remains unchanged.
Tactics to leverage external events aren’t new. Historically, candidates have sought advantages in unexpected areas. For instance, George W. Bush utilized anti-same-sex marriage initiatives in 2004 to rally conservative voters, while Bill Clinton sought to appeal to skeptical Mormon voters in Utah.
While it’s uncertain how effective these strategies will be, strategists agree that every advantage counts. “If you can’t affect turnout, then what else are you going to do?” asked Democratic strategist Peter Giangreco, underscoring the importance of exploring every possible route to gain traction.